A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
