Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
